Today, I was thinking and thought I’d share “how” I think with you all. I don’t think that it’s a phenomenal method by any means. I just thought it’d be an interesting topic for today. So how do I think? I make two assumptions.
- Humans are rational actors
- Information can be shared
Let’s cover some definitions real quick.
What is a “Rational Actor”?
I’m pretty sure I use the definition we used in my economics classes. A rational actor is a being who makes decisions they believe are in their best interested based on the information they have at hand. For example, at the First Battle of Savo Island, VADM Mikawa was presented with an opportunity after his fleet’s overwhelming success in the battle. Does he attack the transports at Savo Island or does he leave. He decides to leave. Why?
- The charts necessary to safely navigate the archipelago had been destroyed in the battle.
- Attacking means that he would be returning to base in the morning, so he would have to deal with allied CV aircraft harassment the whole way back.
What he didn’t know was that the CVs he was concerned about had already left the AO. He is quoted as saying had he known he could attack the transports safely, of course he would’ve done that. But he made his decision based on the information he had at hand.
What is “Information”?
Information is any statement someone believes to be true. Information can be shared means that these “facts” (they need not necessarily be true, only believed to be true) can be distributed.
Pitfalls
Of course, this isn’t a perfect framework. “Best interest” is fairly loosely defined since it can span over seconds or over decades. We just say let that come out in the wash. Humans aren’t always rational actors. And the things you believe to be true, need not necessarily be true. That said, I think despite this it’ll again, all come out in the wash. In the worst case scenarios I assume:
- Actions made by groups of people that don’t lead to successful outcomes have a basis in something and we can find value in that something.
- Actions made by groups of people that lead to successful outcomes will eventually outnumber those made by unsuccessful people due to spread of information.
So for (1), let’s suppose we saw a bunch of people jumping off of a bridge. My basic assumption is that there’s probably a good reason that everyone’s jumping off of the bridge and it may be beneficial for me to do so as well. At worst, even if jumping off of the bridge isn’t the best idea, there was something that made so many people think that jumping off the bridge was their best option. And figuring out what that something is is its own value. (2) is obviously just an appeal to law of large number analogues. Of course the largest pitfall of course is my base assumption that information can be shared. Which means in an illiberal society in which information is suppressed (Nope, not even the United States is safe) there will be a breaking point for my evaluation methods.
General Conclusion
But this brings us to my general conclusion which is that people trend to do what is most beneficial for them. Talk is cheap but people vote with their feet. Information of success is shared, so people will trend to do what is most successful. Which means if you see people fleeing a city en masse like rats off a ship, then something in that city is no bueno. If you see a lot of streamers popping up doing the same thing, that particular thing must be successful. But I also extend this even further. If the most stable countries are democratic, then democracy must be the most successful means of running a country. If a company no longer sells a certain product, it’s not a successful product. If an algorithm is most commonly written a certain way, that way must be the best for some reason or another.
Basically, again, behavior tends towards what’s most successful. Next time you see a company, a country, an organization engaging in what you think is unhealthy or even predatory, remember that it’s likely the result of a number of observations and shared information. It’s done because it works and it’s what works best as far as we know. I often complain about how ubiquitous clicker games are on the play store but the reason they’re so ubiquitous is because they’re easy to make and they’re successful. I VEHEMENTLY despise early access and pre-order because it’s often done in predatory manner but the reason it’s done is because it works. I get so worked up about gamers letting companies engage in bad releases because “it’s release day, it’s expected to be a little wonky” when back in my day you got what the company shipped and you couldn’t patch it. So if it was bad, it was bad, and you told everyone it was bad. Stop excusing bad behavior Jesus fucking Christ. But eh, don’t hate the player, hate the game. But I think that’s everything from me. Thanks for reading.
Artemis Hunt